Mapping the Constellations of Open Source

A personal exploration of 4,900+ projects from the Linux Foundation Leaderboards

5,239 Projects Analyzed
500K+ Contributors
1.2M Commits
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The Spark ✨

I started by sketching out ideas in my notebook...

It began with a simple question: What does the open source universe actually look like? Not the famous stars we all knowβ€”Linux, Kubernetes, VS Codeβ€”but the entire cosmos. The quiet projects maintained by three people. The hidden gems with incredible contributor diversity. The projects on the edge of burnout.

I'd been playing with the Linux Foundation's Leaderboards data for weeks, pulling down JSON files, sketching radial layouts on napkins during lunch breaks. The data surprised me because it told stories I didn't expectβ€”stories about dedication, about community health, about what makes projects thrive or fade.

🎯 The Research Questions:
════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════
Q1: Do you need a massive army to move fast?
β†’ Efficiency: David vs. Goliath

Q2: If a project responds instantly, do they fix issues faster?
β†’ The "Triage Trap": Speed vs. Quality

Q3: Is the project building a skyscraper or painting walls?
β†’ Growth vs. Maintenance

Q4: Which projects have huge corporate buy-in but small teams?
β†’ Finding "Hidden Gems" (Corporate Darlings)

Q5: Which projects are punching way above their weight?
β†’ The "Bus Factor" Watchlist

Q6: Who is running out of steam?
β†’ Burnout Risk: The "Red Alert" List

Q7: Is a low contributor count always bad?
β†’ Libraries vs. Apps: The "Free Rider" Problem

Q8: Are they building features or rewriting the same code?
β†’ The "Churn" Trap: Motion vs. Progress

Q1: Do you need a massive army to move fast? πŸš€

Efficiency: David vs. Goliath

We're calculating the Commits per Contributor ratio. A high ratio means a small, elite team (or highly automated bots) doing massive work. A low ratio means a large community where each person contributes a littleβ€”the "Bazaar" model.

Let's see who the "Special Forces" of open source are.

The Efficiency Constellation

Each star represents a project. Brightness = commits per contributor. Size = total commits.

This is where things got interesting... I tried a bar chart first, but it felt too cold, too corporate. These aren't just numbersβ€”they're communities of people shipping code. So I tried something different: what if each project was a star in a constellation?

The brightest stars are projects with incredible efficiencyβ€”small teams doing massive work. Look at CBT Tape at the center: just 3 contributors produced 1,138 commits each. That's dedication you can see.

Technically, I used D3's force simulation to let the stars find their natural positions, then added a radial gradient to give that soft glow effect. The colors shift from warm coral for the most efficient to cool teal for the larger community projects.

Q4: Which projects have huge corporate buy-in but small teams? πŸ’Ž

Finding "Hidden Gems" (Corporate Darlings)

One of my favorite discoveries came from a conversation about what makes a project truly "healthy." It's not just about commitsβ€”it's about who's contributing. A project with contributors from 40 different organizations is more resilient than one dominated by a single company.

We look for a high Organizational Diversity Ratio (Organizations / Contributors). A high ratio means many companies care about this, but few people write the codeβ€”often critical infrastructure libraries. A low ratio means a massive community project where contributor count dwarfs the org count.

Org Diversity Ratio = Active Organizations / Active Contributors
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Higher ratio = more diverse contributor base
Lower ratio = might be dominated by few orgs (bus factor risk?)

Hidden Gems by Organization Diversity

Smaller projects with remarkably diverse contributor bases

I wanted the colors to feel like actual gemstonesβ€”so I chose an amethyst-to-emerald gradient. Each gem is sized by the number of contributing organizations, creating this beautiful cluster where you can immediately spot the most diverse communities.

ko stands out: 43 organizations contributing among just 68 people. That's a 63% diversity ratio! These are the projects that survive company pivots, layoffs, and changing priorities.

Q6: Who is running out of steam? πŸ”₯

Burnout Risk: The "Red Alert" List

This one was hard to make. Not technicallyβ€”emotionally. These are projects that were once thriving, now showing signs of contributor fatigue. The momentum score compares recent commits to historical activity. A steep negative slope means the fire is going out.

We looked at projects with high productivity scores that have seen a massive drop in momentum. If you depend on these, check on them.

Momentum = (current_commits - prev_commits) / prev_commits
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
-0.97 means 97% decline in activity 😰
These projects need love, contributors, attention

I chose to visualize this as flamesβ€”bright at the base (historical productivity), fading toward the top (current state). It felt more honest than a clinical bar chart.

Projects at Risk: Fading Momentum

Historical productivity vs. current decline. Hover to see the stories.

Q5: Which projects are punching way above their weight? 🌟

The "Bus Factor" Watchlist: Small Teams, Massive Output

Every data story needs its celebrities. VS Code with 24,000+ contributors. Home Assistant with its passionate home automation community. Kubernetes powering the cloud-native revolution. But here's the twist: bigger isn't always better.

These projects have ≀50 contributors but generate massive commit volumes. Risk: High output from a small group means if one key person leaves, the project could stall. These are the "David" projects of the ecosystemβ€”impressive, but fragile.

Look at the efficiency ratioβ€”commits per contributor. The giants are actually quite inefficient by this metric! That's not a flawβ€”it's a feature. These projects are gateways. They turn newcomers into open source contributors. A small fix to VS Code might be someone's first PR ever.

The Open Source Giants

Size = Contributors. Color intensity = Commits per contributor.

Q2: If a project responds instantly, do they fix issues faster? ⏱️

The "Triage Trap": Speed vs. Quality

Hypothesis: If a project responds instantly to issues, they probably fix them faster too, right?

Here's where my hypothesis broke. I assumed faster response times would correlate with higher resolution rates. I was wrong. The correlation? A mere 0.031. That's basically zero.

Spoiler Alert: Fast bots saying "Thanks for your issue!" doesn't mean the bug gets fixed.

This scatter plot shows why. There's no pattern. Fast responders can have low resolution. Slow projects can resolve everything. It's chaosβ€”beautiful, organic, human chaos.

Response Time vs Resolution Rate

Each dot is a project. Hover to explore the outliers.

Q3: Building a skyscraper or painting walls? πŸ—οΈ

Growth vs. Maintenance

We compare Commit Activity against Codebase Size. High Commits + Low Size = High maintenance/refactoring. The team is working hard to keep things running or cleaning up technical debt. High Commits + High Size = Massive expansion.

Projects like Model Context Protocol (MCP) appeared here with huge activity but small sizeβ€” classic signs of a new, rapidly iterating standard or heavy refactoring.

Growth vs. Maintenance Ratio

Codebase size vs commit activity. High maintenance projects in warm colors.

Q8: Building features or rewriting code forever? πŸ”„

The "Churn" Trap: Motion vs. Progress

We calculated a Churn Ratio: Commits per Net Line of Code Change.

Churn Analysis:
─────────────────────────────────────────────────────────────
Low Ratio (~1.0): Every commit adds value (Growth) βœ…
High Ratio (>100): Hundreds of commits to change 5 lines 🚨

β†’ High churn = refactoring, stabilization, or non-code work
β†’ They're spinning wheels (or polishing the engine)

The Churn Trap: Activity vs. Growth

Projects with high churn are working hard but not necessarily growing.

🏁 Final Verdict: Answers to the Questions

Building this visualization taught me something I didn't expect. Open source isn't just codeβ€”it's a living ecosystem. Projects breathe, grow, sometimes struggle.

The Answers We Found:
══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════

Q1: Do you need a massive army to move fast?
β†’ NO! Projects like CBT Tape (3 contributors, 1,138 commits/person) prove small teams can be incredibly efficient.

Q2: Fast response = fast resolution?
β†’ NO! Correlation is just 0.031. Speed doesn't predict quality. Bots saying "thanks!" β‰  bugs fixed.

Q3: Building or painting walls?
β†’ Mixed! Projects like MCP show massive activity with small codebasesβ€”heavy refactoring or rapid iteration.

Q4: Hidden gems with corporate backing?
β†’ YES! ko, Infection, Numcodecs have 60%+ org diversity ratiosβ€”critical infrastructure backed by many.

Q5: Who's punching above their weight?
β†’ Watch the Bus Factor list: Mushroom Observer, SOAJS produce 20K+ commits with ≀50 people.

Q6: Who's running out of steam?
β†’ RED ALERT: Islet and CheriBSD show >97% decline in activity. Check on them!

Q7: Low contributors always bad?
β†’ NO! Libraries like MarkupSafe don't need 1000 cooks. Apps like E4S might need more help.

Q8: Building features or rewriting code?
β†’ Some are stuck! MCP and EVerest show >2000 commits per net line changeβ€”heavy churn.

I started with questions about efficiency and ended up with a meditation on sustainability. The "best" projects aren't the biggest or fastestβ€”they're the ones that keep burning, year after year, through changing trends and technologies.

Data doesn't lie, but it does whisper. You just have to listen closely.

The Invitation πŸš€

If you've made it this far, you're my kind of person. This data is publicβ€”all from the Linux Foundation Leaderboards. I encourage you to explore, fork the code, find your own stories.

Maybe you'll find a hidden gem that needs contributors. Maybe you'll discover a project at risk of burnout and decide to help. The beauty of open source is that the next commit could be yours.